KH correctly points that Obama creates and not just competes.
Most agree that Obama assembled and ran the best political campaign in history after he took on the two most established political force in America politics - the Clintons and the GOP that ruled America in the last 28 years.
I will offer my five cent worth of analysis attributing his success to his earlier experience.
As a lawyer, he masters the rules, churning out large number of early voters against McCain (that gave him victory at least in NC).
As a community organizer, he creates the largest political volunteer corp and raises the largest political donation through very early use of the best technology available.
As a basketball player, he takes the game to the opponent by executing the 50 states strategy.
As a self-made political entrepreneur, his no drama campaign organization personify his very own self-discipline (one commentator liken him to Putin's self discipline in a complimentary way).
To top them all, he speaks like Abraham Lincoln/JFK (recall "a more perfect union", "a world that stands as one", his 2004& 2008 DNC speeches), that mesmerize hundred of thousands included folks like us who are non-americans.
It is always easy to attribute reasons for success post-facto.
There are aspects in which the success is partly influenced by the fortuitous circumstances. I concede fortune does favor those who are best prepared. In this case, it is Obama.
To be fair to McCain, losing by 6.9% margin is very respectable considering the financial meltdown beginning from Sept. He did himself no favor by conceding two own goals - one on selecting Palin and the other on his poor handling of the crisis. (Popular vote margin for Bush 2.4% (2004) and -0.5% (2000) ; Clinton 8.5% (1996) and 5.3% (1992); Bush Sr. 7.8% (1988); Reagan 18.2% (1984) and 9.7% (1980).
Playing the devil advocate, I am wondering had Palin not on the ticket or the meltdown beginning with Lehman come two months later, will Obama still win with what is now known as the best political campaign team in history?
One answer is that I am reminded that American is a center right country (seen from the ban on gay marriage from California to Florida) and Barack Obama is a center left candidate.
I will be glad to learn of other perspective.
*The winning margin has been revised fourth time since Nov 4 from the original 6.4%.
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2 comments:
I like your analysis, especially the basketball! Ultimately this is a man who has a lot of self-belief, is secure in himself and has faith in others. That's why he has to be a leader quick before he gets stuck in politics.
6.4% is more than respectable considering it is based on 52.5% of the popular vote.
The races won by George H W Bush (1988), Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996) and Ronald Reagan (1980) all featured a significant 3rd candidates: Ross Perot in 1992, 1996 and John Anderson in 1980.
Although Nader and Barr also ran this year, their cumulative vote total was around 2% as opposed to Perot who won 19% in 1992 and 8% in 1996. In 1980, John Andersen won 7%.
The effect of 3rd party candidates is that voters who would otherwise reluctantly vote for the No.2 candidate can cast a protest vote for the 3rd candidate; thereby enlarging the popular vote margin but normally lead to a massacre on the electoral vote.
Clinton won 370 EV in 1992 (vs Obama's 364) despite winning only 46% of the vote - the same % as won by McCain. In 1996, Clinton won 379 EV despite winning 49.2% of the popular vote.
I believe it is too simplistic to have a generic description of Obama as a liberal, Democrats as center-left and the USA as center-right. If I am not mistaken, thats the same argument he made in his book The Audacity of Hope. People are more nuanced than suggested by political labels; one can be right-wing culturally but left economically; the differences may be issue-by-issue. The political labels are one of the legacies of the destruction of political debate by the GOP machinery - when for a long time they made (illogical) arguments like "If you want to keep your guns how can you oppose tax cuts" "If you oppose abortion than how can you believe in God?" People have to be better than that!
i cannot agree more with your last paragraph. Society is more sophisticated than the usual generalization.
On the ballot measures, I would have voted differently on banning gay marriage, opposing gay couples adopting children, authorizing stem cell research.
what about you? will we wote the same way?
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