China's Conundrum

During the Maoist times, one of the most profound truths was that Capitalism would inevitably collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. These days my fear for China is that it will - wittingly or unwittingly - be a victim of its own contradictions.

This is not a recent nor an original view point. However recent events has caused me to take this idea more seriously than before.

For a long time, until recently, China's rulers have - for the most parts - stood out for being exceedingly astute and strategic in their thoughts and actions. Theirs was an unenviable task of simultaneously running, stabilizing and transforming a nation unprecedented in history for its scale and success. A continent-size world, carrying the hopes, energies and fears of one-fifth of humanity; equally inspired and weighed-down by 5000 years of civilization. There was nothing trifle, petty or small-minded about the tasks they wake up to, the ambitions they wish for or historic responsibility their decisions would carry. Most remarkably, it seem that they had a playbook, a plan and in their minds knew clearly what they were playing for in the long term.

As you can tell, I am quite a fan.

But right now, I am not so sure. Perhaps the playbook has run its course - and no one has a copy Vol. II. Perhaps along with success came an unhealthy dose of hubris. Perhaps they decide to selectively ignore the playbook and try to be smar(er). Perhaps it is hardest when the playbook says to change - when things are going so well. Or, perhaps this is really the hard part ... no one had thought about what to do with the contradictions that are becoming harder and harder to avoid.

The elephant in the living room has to do with the political legitimacy of China's rulers vis-a-vis the people. Without a democratic process, this rested on the unquestioned primacy of the CCP and by equating: Chinese nation = PRC = CCP. Hence any attack on the CCP invites knee-jerk xenophobic fury as an attack on the "Chinese people" and its cultural identity, history and to prevent its "rise". One can see that reaction to every critic and every threat to the dominance of the CCP.

But that is the easy way out, to convince the people that those who disagree with the CCP are agents led by foreign black hands, etc. To the average person in middle-China, Tibet and Xinjiang are "foreign" enough but even then the official line is always that foreign-based forces instigated the troubles. Added to the mixture, there were ethnic violence. With the Falun Gong it was harder given the earthy nature of its followers. but even then the foreign black hand angle was introduced. Fundamentally, I believe the CCP got away because their grievances did not resonate with the public.

It would be interesting to see how the CCP would respond, if the KMT/ROC claim to truly represent the pride of the Chinese people and culture. That would be a serious challenge to the CCP's stance that nobody but the CCP would stand-up for the Chinese people and civilization.

But here is the rub. CCP's argument as the defender of Chinese pride and by fanning a sense of victimhood usually works fine to divert attention but it does not address its fundamental deficit in political legitimacy. This is a tactic and not a strategy; mainly because will not work for the most serious threats to the CCP. This is also increasingly counter-productive (probably damaging) to China's rise as a great power .

As we are seeing with LXB, the main weakness of the CCP's nation-under-attack logic to internal critics - especially those of a peaceful nature and speaking from the dignity of the Chinese people. It is quite a sight, that the same PRC that (in front of its people) increasingly speaks boastfully and sometimes condescendingly to the world of its ascendence and superiority - gets into a nervous breakdown behind closed doors over the conviction and ideas of an individual in its prison.

The reality is that ordinary people in China lead lives that are increasingly free. Enough of them will disagree with the CCP from time to time. Given the technology, a mobile and networked society, no matter how hard one might try, the CCP cannot forever fully control every knowledge and social network. Once people who disagree know enough other people came to that same conclusion themselves. What then? As Lincoln said, "you can keep the truth from all the people some of the time and you can keep the truth from some of the people all the time, but you cannot keep the truth from all the people all of the time." Or as the Chinese saying goes, you cannot cover-up fire with paper.

Contrast the vehemence and invectives reserved for "foreign" critics with the treatment of mass protests (which are far from unusual actually) that boil over on widely-shared grievances - corruption, abuse of power, injustice or joblessness /hardship - in the heartlands like Hunan, Szechuan, Jiangxi, Hebei - you can see the limits of the CCP's current approach. In those cases, the CCP's responses are usually confused, improvised and highly cautious in order to defuse the tension before it spreads and becomes a wider challenge to the CCP.

In the meantime, the Chinese leadership appears to be lost for ideas other than to feed the beast of Chinese superiority. Many Chinese appear to have a hubristic view of China's place in the world - that China is always right, China always wins and nobody else really matters. Given the media environment, there are nobody either willing or able to offer any alternative world view. Given the education system, few people would be inclined to critical thinking and seek independent truth from questioning what is being told to them (something the Germans have made a central part of their education system for the past 60 years). Given the political environment, woe be to whoever has a contrarian view of China's view of itself.

Granted, such views of hubris and over-confidence are often not shared among its senior leaderships; who - knowing better - they fret, plan and labor to steer China through a world of opportunity and challenges. It is all and well for every man in the street to sing that China is #1 when things are well. But these days, if things go wrong, how do you then ask the people to bear with suffering and sacrifice, if - in exchange for total political control - the CCP is supposed to take care of everything and deliver the good life?

To the rest of the world, even at peace, China would be that insufferable kind of friend - who is constantly either boastful and looking for praise - and who bullyingly expect everyone to toe its line and serve its interests. At worse, an increasingly arrogant and hubristic public opinion will draw China into conflict with its neighbors leading to destruction of all concerned. If you remember, in World War I, both sides thought they were so superior that they would win the war in a few months. But that ended with the deaths of a whole generation of men and Europe losing its global economic dominance.

Everything I have said above leads to this next point: at the heart of China's conundrum is that its leadership has exhausted what can be done with effort and competence. To get beyond this, China's leaders and people need to be guided by enlightened values and purpose that goes beyond its national interests.

Europe did not become the dominant force in the world only because it had a larger navy; but because it was the first to embrace science, humanism and liberalism (and throwing away religious dogmatism and autocratism). America did not dominate only because it has boundless resources and industry but because it was able to inspire people around the world with its ideals of political and economic freedom that bring powers to the individual.

For China to be a great power, it will have to see its history and civilization as more than just a self-protecting shield to justify its legitimacy as a world power. It will have to dig deep beyond the surface of its past glories - and into the essence of its ancient wisdom and values - in order to offer something that inspires and rallies the whole human race around China's true calling to its own greatness.