Future Conventional Wisdoms

A few daring predictions - or rather cutting through the conventional wisdom that we see in the media circa 3Q2010 that stands in the way of seeing reality. In no particular order:

(1) Britain lurches into a recession in early 2011 - and possibly bringing Europe into one. One simply can't cut 8% off government spending (or approx. 5% of the GDP worth of consumption) - and 500,000 jobs, or increasing the unemployment level by 20% - without having some sort of impact on a weak economic recovery. Interest rates are already low and whatever boost in confidence from fiscal prudence will not compensate for lower demand. The Coalition government's cuts will - on hindsight - be seen to be foolhardy.

(2) Barack Obama finds himself (still) popular - The media will wake up from the meme of Obama losing popularity, by realizing that he has a really stable bed-rock of following that stays resilient no matter what. Since Jan 2008, he has polled around 45% when faced with Hillary and later against McCain. Only when he was flushed with victory in late 2008 and early 2009, he rose above the 50% mark. It is remarkable that given the state of the country and the wringers he has been put through for the past 2 years, Obama's numbers essentially remained unchanged. This is the bedrock that propels him to a second term. The world will also concludes that he remains the best they can expect and deals with him on that basis.

(3) Global economies in steady and sustainable recovery - Behind all the feelings of impatience over the momentum of economic recovery and fears of a double-dip, conventional wisdom is missing out very real recoveries in the booming BRIC and emerging economies which led to recoveries in Europe and the US (where corporate profits are beating expectations, farm prices breaks record and exports booming). The only road bumps are self-inflicted (see Britain above).

(4) Green technology undergoes a breakthrough - Behind all the glum after Copenhagen Climate Summit, the key to permanently reducing our carbon footprint will come from a series of innovations that breaks out much like the internet in the 1990s; and take the world by surprise. Although where it will emerge is be unpredictable, the under-pinnings are all there: a combination of national competition, strategic government-led investments in science, internet-speed linkages and collaboration, market forces from demands in the emerging markets esp. China and India and China's manufacturing prowess that lowers costs.

(5) China makes quiet moves towards internal democracy - Beneath the official caution and reflexive oppression, the Chinese society moves into a level of prosperity, personal liberty and maturity that evolve into quiet progress on political reform, that takes place as experiments and in a piece-meal manner in the more advanced provinces and cities. The next decade will be remembered as a balancing act between political reform and struggles to contain dangerous nationalist tendencies (from the majority and not just from minorities).

(6) Water replaces CO2 as the environmental issues of the day - As with CFCs in the 1990s, acid rain in the 1980s, CO2 will be overtaken as the environmental issue of the day by water. Structural changes in the supply and demand of water in Middle-east, India, North-China, Southwest US and Australia will trigger a new global crisis and consciousness about living with less water. On the other hand, changes in the weather pattern will bring too much water to many parts of the world - whether from hurricanes, torrential monsoons and rising sea levels - will spur water related innovations and engineering. Water technologies and supply commands a premium. China exports its hard-won desertification fighting and tree-planting know-how as green technologies.

(7) Asians are the new Westerners - After 200 years, Asians will be considered the global elite - bringing together the same mix of envy and resentment. In many parts of the world, East Asians are already considered the "new white" as the establishment or the social elite. This mentality will spread to the West itself.

(8) Gas becomes competitive with oil - The perfect storm of 4 factors: massive reserves of non-traditional gas in the developed world coming on tap, glut in LNG capacity and resulting plunge in tradable gas prices, drive for cleaner energy and expansion of electricity into transportation conspire for gas to first replace coal in power generation and oil in transportation. Because gas requires massive, bankable long term investments, the expansion of gas encourages progressive, stable and responsible governments in the Middle-east.

(9) Turkey joins BRIC and emerges as an economic powerhouse that Europe finds increasingly difficult to ignore but equally hard to embrace. Turkey forms the new nucleus of influence to be reckon with that stretches from Eastern Europe to Central Asia and the Levantian Middle East. This revives in economic and political terms the old Ottoman sphere of influence of a billion people ignored by Europe and out-of-reach of the US, China or India.

(10) America gets transformed - again - by its army of new Asian and Hispanic immigrants that lifts it away from becoming Latin America (income and socio-economic inequality, entrenched special interests, oligarchic centers of power and decline) and its Western-dominated worldview into a mightier version of Canada (progressive, open, diverse). Future historians would notice a reassertion of America's historic Asiatic/Pacific cultural and ethnic links after a period of when European connection dominates.