10 Forecasts for 10 Years Out

Let me start a new annual tradition to present 10 projections about 10 years in the future.

October 20, 2019.

1. The biggest source of anxiety in the whole world is bewilderment at how quickly the world is changing all around everyone. Bewilderment and feeling disconnected from the future of the world becomes the "mother-of-all-fears" that show itself in more extremist activities rooted in nationalism, religion and economic grievances.

2. Action against climate-change becomes a money-spinner, vote winner and source of national pride. The public came around to realise that those who pollute stays poor and governments also learnt that they always gets blamed for poor environment that leave their people sick. The biggest new boom industry is "Clear Industries" which involves scrubbing and filtering technology to produce clean water and clean air. And the winner in this turn-around game (so far) is ... China.

3. The world is in a new financial crisis driven by bursting of an economic bubble in China after 10 years of loans growth, real estate boom and unfettered investment. The economies of the US, Europe and Japan are not strong enough to compensate, while most of the rest of the developing world is, by now, wrapped in reliance on the Chinese economy. Chinese youths - reared on a diet of "China-never-makes-a-mistake", being unfamiliar with self-reflection and coping with disappointments - behaves in volatile and dangerous ways increasing regional tensions. China responds with policial reforms but finds it hard to manage expectations.

4. The biggest source of social and regional instability comes from environmental degradation especially lack of access to water. Tensions breakout into violence and wars in Africa, Middle-east, Indian-subcontinent, Central Asia and within China amongst people who are trapped by poverty or national borders from shifting life sustaining resources.

5. India promises but sputters as age old divisions (and sheer numbers of population growth) stayed ahead of growth. Intense dislocation and "bewilderment" within its massive, under-educated and traditionally conservative population creates a volatile domestic and international situation with politically motivated clashes with China. Indian politicians vie to become the new global spoilers as the standard bearer for the "have-nots" against the global economy which China and the US champions.

6. Iran - the ancient civiliation of Persia - flowers after reformist factions takes power after overthrowing the reactionary elements. The economy is in shambles but politically, together with Iraq, it tries to be a model of "The Shiite Way" of a modern Islamic nation that combines piety, traditions with modern progress. Meanwhile, Egypt and Saudi Arabia slides towards anarchy as the state falters in botched political successions.

7. America gets to a point of reckoning if it will retain its pre-eminent military power which it can no longer afford, or reorientate to rebuild its economy to cope with an ageing population, global competition and gross inefficiencies (despite the best of efforts in 8 years of the Obama Presidency) in its healthcare, infrastructure, education and governance systems.

8. Thailand starts to remind people of the Philippines. Philippines begins to remind people of Zimbabwe. Malaysia becomes more like Thailand with a succession of weak governments, stronger civil society and resulting in a lost generation. Vietnam is the stunner which trumps them all with the most vibrant economy in Southeast Asia. Indonesia thrives on diversity and finally show its promise but also rearing its heads with regional ambition. Singapore roars ahead and settles into a comfort zone like Danmark. Brunei has trouble with over-population which nudges closer and closer to 1m. Sri Lanka becomes the economic dark horse and tries to join ASEAN.

9. Mass and conspicuous consumption becomes unfashionable as the average age of the "haves" in the world gets older (but the world's "have nots" gets younger). Shopping malls become a place associated with the lower classes. Instead, people spend more time and money on creative arts, health, experiences and investing in human relationships. The health, vacation and education industry keeps booming. The quest for authenticity in experiences of nature creates stress on world's cultural and natural heritage leading to persistent tension between the "haves" and "have-nots".

10. Brazil finally becomes the global power it always had the potential to be but never did. Vast new energy resources, unrivalled prowess in farming, prolonged political stability and (finally) social reforms and stronger rule of law creates a new force in the world equal to Japan and EU and below that of only US and China. The main driver for Brazil's rise came from Brazil's strategic economic partnership with China (also Australia) where Brazil is both a source of raw materials and a new 400m people market for China in Latin America.