With the benefit of hindsight, here is a review of my predictions for 2011. So how did I do? 6 points out of 10.
(1) "Britain lurches into a recession in early 2011 - and possibly bringing Europe into one.......The Coalition government's cuts will - on hindsight - be seen to be foolhardy."
Largely spot on, apart from the timing, which would be late 2011 or early 2012. (1 point)
(2) "Barack Obama finds himself (still) popular - ..........This is the bedrock that propels him to a second term. The world will also concludes that he remains the best they can expect and deals with him on that basis".
Still polling largely at 45 +/- 2. The point was about the core resilience in Obama's electoral prowess. As employment picture improves, the ceiling would also lift to the high 40s or low 50s. I still see a second Obama inauguration on Jan 20, 2013 - and people complaining how poorly it compare to the first one. (1 point)
(3) "Global economies in steady and sustainable recovery ......... The only road bumps are self-inflicted (see Britain above)".
Largely correct despite fears of a double-dip and the Eurozone crisis from summer onwards. 2012 will depend on how quickly Europe can get its political will together and how quickly China can prime its fiscal pumps. (1 point)
(4) "Green technology undergoes a breakthrough.......... a combination of national competition, strategic government-led investments in science, internet-speed linkages and collaboration, market forces from demands in the emerging markets esp. China and India and China's manufacturing prowess that lowers costs.
Strangely, the breakthrough was actually in polysilicon prices which is down 95% due to breakneck competition from over-supply of manufacturing capacity in China. (Half point)
(5) "China makes quiet moves towards internal democracy".
Anything but. If there is any, I have not heard of it. (Zero point.)
(6) "Water replaces CO2 as the environmental issues of the day ........Structural changes in the supply and demand of water in Middle-east, India, North-China, Southwest US and Australia will trigger a new global crisis and consciousness about living with less water......".
Small signs but nothing like that yet. (Zero point)
(7) "Asians are the new Westerners - After 200 years, Asians will be considered the global elite".
True, if you count the high-end buyers of real estate and red wine. (Quarter point)
(8) "Gas becomes competitive with oil".
Amazingly, with the production of shale and other unconventional gas, gas prices are now the much cheaper than oil if you are in North America and has access to pipelines. With rapidly increasing reserves worldwide, the race is on to make gas more transportable either in gaseous or liquid forms to market. (1 point)
(9) "Turkey joins BRIC and emerges as an economic powerhouse that Europe finds increasingly difficult to ignore but equally hard to embrace. Turkey forms the new nucleus of influence to be reckon with that stretches from Eastern Europe to Central Asia and the Levantian Middle East.".
With 8.5% growth in Turkey for 2011 and its emergence as the political and economic model for the Arab Spring, yes Turkey is a new powerhouse. (1 point)
(10) "America gets transformed - again - by its army of new Asian and Hispanic immigrants ................"
In progress. The demographic story is compelling but transformation will be apparent only on hindsight. (quarter point)
