Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Amazing Pictures, Pollution in China
I came across some very sad and troubling pictures by Chinese photographer Lu Guang (卢广) on the price for environmental damage in China. The environmental is not an abstract issue in China, it is poisoning and killing the Chinese people. It is an equal opportunity killer that does not discriminate between the powerful and the powerless - except its simply bad for everyone in an affluent area and disastrous for everyone in the poorer areas. Which is why things must and I am convinced it will change for the better. Why do I think so? The local Party Secretaries, county chiefs and bureaucrats themselves live there and they have children too (even if they can be shipped off to cleaner places or overseas). And here is something that even absolute-power can only go so far. Secondly, official inaction (on top of official abuse and corruption that created the mess to start with) simply creates a powderkeg of resentment and trouble. Thirdly, the Chinese government knows thats not what they want. No matter how profitable, this is now officially something to be ashamed of and not something to play victim or be defensive about. This is the big difference with India (right now) and China (from 5-10 years ago).
Amazing Pictures, Pollution in China
Amazing Pictures, Pollution in China
Monday, October 26, 2009
Key issues about the world according to Lee Kuan Yew
Lee Kuan Yew is a great man and one of my heroes since I was old enough to discuss news and current affairs with my late-father who held him in high regard as well. In fact, there is a family story that during my grandfather's funeral back in 1960, when the time came to place the headstone to his grave, my great-grandmother (a very pious and spiritual woman - but who did not read newspapers - and who died in 1970 age 80 ) told everyone to wait. Why they asked? She simply said she had a feeling that a great person would be passing by. Who? No idea. So everybody waited no knowing what would happen next. And then she gave the signal to go ahead to place the headstone. At that very moment, Lee Kuan Yew's motorcade drove past the cemetary. Then, he was only 37 years old and one year into being Chief Minister of Singapore.
Lee Kuan Yew has his critics and yes, he has his flaws. But as Henry Kissenger once said, whatever one's view of him - good or bad - one has to listen to him because you always learn something from him. My own take is that he is a pragmatist so, in fact, as far as he is concerned much of the criticisms about him are irrelevant. He is not a romantic so he has no yearning for his ideas or his actions to be perfect. He is not a populist or revolutionary so he is not always looking for an opponent or strawman to knockdown. He is not after money otherwise he would be a failure on that count. He knows there is a price to pay for everything, so everything considered whatever he has achieved is more lasting and significant than the costs for achieving it. This is such a simple notion but one that is very hard to apply unless one has a clear understanding. He is obsessed above-all with delivering what he feels to be necessary for his passion - Singapore - so he has no qualms about his methods (unless he feels it was not working).
Which brings me to something else my father always tells me. He says everytime a new US President comes into office, not long after that he would see Lee Kuan Yew to get advise and learn about the world. So this week, Lee Kuan Yew is in town and looks like he will be meeting everyone there is to meet in the Obama Administration, including the President himself this coming Thursday.
So which is why last weekend, I get to watch him interviewed by Charlie Rose (one of the few smart and serious TV journlist left in American TV - but then, he is on PBS the high quality public TV channel). Even at age 86, I hear a towering intellect giving an astute reading of the world with the mind of a strategist. This is too good not to share.
His life-long experience of understanding politics and world statesmanship lent him a clear mind to discerne short-term noise and distractions from the fundamental strategic issues. Every one of his statements made a point; there was no political non-answers. He recalls his statistics carefully and not - as it is tempting for many public figures to do so - make them up to make a point. I appreciate listening to someone who observes the world in order to learn and not to "prove or disprove" some pre-conceived position.
Put simply, he is in a class of his own.
Please enjoy (this is part 1 out of 6).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNhcOwhpR1E
Lee Kuan Yew has his critics and yes, he has his flaws. But as Henry Kissenger once said, whatever one's view of him - good or bad - one has to listen to him because you always learn something from him. My own take is that he is a pragmatist so, in fact, as far as he is concerned much of the criticisms about him are irrelevant. He is not a romantic so he has no yearning for his ideas or his actions to be perfect. He is not a populist or revolutionary so he is not always looking for an opponent or strawman to knockdown. He is not after money otherwise he would be a failure on that count. He knows there is a price to pay for everything, so everything considered whatever he has achieved is more lasting and significant than the costs for achieving it. This is such a simple notion but one that is very hard to apply unless one has a clear understanding. He is obsessed above-all with delivering what he feels to be necessary for his passion - Singapore - so he has no qualms about his methods (unless he feels it was not working).
Which brings me to something else my father always tells me. He says everytime a new US President comes into office, not long after that he would see Lee Kuan Yew to get advise and learn about the world. So this week, Lee Kuan Yew is in town and looks like he will be meeting everyone there is to meet in the Obama Administration, including the President himself this coming Thursday.
So which is why last weekend, I get to watch him interviewed by Charlie Rose (one of the few smart and serious TV journlist left in American TV - but then, he is on PBS the high quality public TV channel). Even at age 86, I hear a towering intellect giving an astute reading of the world with the mind of a strategist. This is too good not to share.
His life-long experience of understanding politics and world statesmanship lent him a clear mind to discerne short-term noise and distractions from the fundamental strategic issues. Every one of his statements made a point; there was no political non-answers. He recalls his statistics carefully and not - as it is tempting for many public figures to do so - make them up to make a point. I appreciate listening to someone who observes the world in order to learn and not to "prove or disprove" some pre-conceived position.
Put simply, he is in a class of his own.
Please enjoy (this is part 1 out of 6).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNhcOwhpR1E
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
10 Forecasts for 10 Years Out
Let me start a new annual tradition to present 10 projections about 10 years in the future.
October 20, 2019.
1. The biggest source of anxiety in the whole world is bewilderment at how quickly the world is changing all around everyone. Bewilderment and feeling disconnected from the future of the world becomes the "mother-of-all-fears" that show itself in more extremist activities rooted in nationalism, religion and economic grievances.
2. Action against climate-change becomes a money-spinner, vote winner and source of national pride. The public came around to realise that those who pollute stays poor and governments also learnt that they always gets blamed for poor environment that leave their people sick. The biggest new boom industry is "Clear Industries" which involves scrubbing and filtering technology to produce clean water and clean air. And the winner in this turn-around game (so far) is ... China.
3. The world is in a new financial crisis driven by bursting of an economic bubble in China after 10 years of loans growth, real estate boom and unfettered investment. The economies of the US, Europe and Japan are not strong enough to compensate, while most of the rest of the developing world is, by now, wrapped in reliance on the Chinese economy. Chinese youths - reared on a diet of "China-never-makes-a-mistake", being unfamiliar with self-reflection and coping with disappointments - behaves in volatile and dangerous ways increasing regional tensions. China responds with policial reforms but finds it hard to manage expectations.
4. The biggest source of social and regional instability comes from environmental degradation especially lack of access to water. Tensions breakout into violence and wars in Africa, Middle-east, Indian-subcontinent, Central Asia and within China amongst people who are trapped by poverty or national borders from shifting life sustaining resources.
5. India promises but sputters as age old divisions (and sheer numbers of population growth) stayed ahead of growth. Intense dislocation and "bewilderment" within its massive, under-educated and traditionally conservative population creates a volatile domestic and international situation with politically motivated clashes with China. Indian politicians vie to become the new global spoilers as the standard bearer for the "have-nots" against the global economy which China and the US champions.
6. Iran - the ancient civiliation of Persia - flowers after reformist factions takes power after overthrowing the reactionary elements. The economy is in shambles but politically, together with Iraq, it tries to be a model of "The Shiite Way" of a modern Islamic nation that combines piety, traditions with modern progress. Meanwhile, Egypt and Saudi Arabia slides towards anarchy as the state falters in botched political successions.
7. America gets to a point of reckoning if it will retain its pre-eminent military power which it can no longer afford, or reorientate to rebuild its economy to cope with an ageing population, global competition and gross inefficiencies (despite the best of efforts in 8 years of the Obama Presidency) in its healthcare, infrastructure, education and governance systems.
8. Thailand starts to remind people of the Philippines. Philippines begins to remind people of Zimbabwe. Malaysia becomes more like Thailand with a succession of weak governments, stronger civil society and resulting in a lost generation. Vietnam is the stunner which trumps them all with the most vibrant economy in Southeast Asia. Indonesia thrives on diversity and finally show its promise but also rearing its heads with regional ambition. Singapore roars ahead and settles into a comfort zone like Danmark. Brunei has trouble with over-population which nudges closer and closer to 1m. Sri Lanka becomes the economic dark horse and tries to join ASEAN.
9. Mass and conspicuous consumption becomes unfashionable as the average age of the "haves" in the world gets older (but the world's "have nots" gets younger). Shopping malls become a place associated with the lower classes. Instead, people spend more time and money on creative arts, health, experiences and investing in human relationships. The health, vacation and education industry keeps booming. The quest for authenticity in experiences of nature creates stress on world's cultural and natural heritage leading to persistent tension between the "haves" and "have-nots".
10. Brazil finally becomes the global power it always had the potential to be but never did. Vast new energy resources, unrivalled prowess in farming, prolonged political stability and (finally) social reforms and stronger rule of law creates a new force in the world equal to Japan and EU and below that of only US and China. The main driver for Brazil's rise came from Brazil's strategic economic partnership with China (also Australia) where Brazil is both a source of raw materials and a new 400m people market for China in Latin America.
October 20, 2019.
1. The biggest source of anxiety in the whole world is bewilderment at how quickly the world is changing all around everyone. Bewilderment and feeling disconnected from the future of the world becomes the "mother-of-all-fears" that show itself in more extremist activities rooted in nationalism, religion and economic grievances.
2. Action against climate-change becomes a money-spinner, vote winner and source of national pride. The public came around to realise that those who pollute stays poor and governments also learnt that they always gets blamed for poor environment that leave their people sick. The biggest new boom industry is "Clear Industries" which involves scrubbing and filtering technology to produce clean water and clean air. And the winner in this turn-around game (so far) is ... China.
3. The world is in a new financial crisis driven by bursting of an economic bubble in China after 10 years of loans growth, real estate boom and unfettered investment. The economies of the US, Europe and Japan are not strong enough to compensate, while most of the rest of the developing world is, by now, wrapped in reliance on the Chinese economy. Chinese youths - reared on a diet of "China-never-makes-a-mistake", being unfamiliar with self-reflection and coping with disappointments - behaves in volatile and dangerous ways increasing regional tensions. China responds with policial reforms but finds it hard to manage expectations.
4. The biggest source of social and regional instability comes from environmental degradation especially lack of access to water. Tensions breakout into violence and wars in Africa, Middle-east, Indian-subcontinent, Central Asia and within China amongst people who are trapped by poverty or national borders from shifting life sustaining resources.
5. India promises but sputters as age old divisions (and sheer numbers of population growth) stayed ahead of growth. Intense dislocation and "bewilderment" within its massive, under-educated and traditionally conservative population creates a volatile domestic and international situation with politically motivated clashes with China. Indian politicians vie to become the new global spoilers as the standard bearer for the "have-nots" against the global economy which China and the US champions.
6. Iran - the ancient civiliation of Persia - flowers after reformist factions takes power after overthrowing the reactionary elements. The economy is in shambles but politically, together with Iraq, it tries to be a model of "The Shiite Way" of a modern Islamic nation that combines piety, traditions with modern progress. Meanwhile, Egypt and Saudi Arabia slides towards anarchy as the state falters in botched political successions.
7. America gets to a point of reckoning if it will retain its pre-eminent military power which it can no longer afford, or reorientate to rebuild its economy to cope with an ageing population, global competition and gross inefficiencies (despite the best of efforts in 8 years of the Obama Presidency) in its healthcare, infrastructure, education and governance systems.
8. Thailand starts to remind people of the Philippines. Philippines begins to remind people of Zimbabwe. Malaysia becomes more like Thailand with a succession of weak governments, stronger civil society and resulting in a lost generation. Vietnam is the stunner which trumps them all with the most vibrant economy in Southeast Asia. Indonesia thrives on diversity and finally show its promise but also rearing its heads with regional ambition. Singapore roars ahead and settles into a comfort zone like Danmark. Brunei has trouble with over-population which nudges closer and closer to 1m. Sri Lanka becomes the economic dark horse and tries to join ASEAN.
9. Mass and conspicuous consumption becomes unfashionable as the average age of the "haves" in the world gets older (but the world's "have nots" gets younger). Shopping malls become a place associated with the lower classes. Instead, people spend more time and money on creative arts, health, experiences and investing in human relationships. The health, vacation and education industry keeps booming. The quest for authenticity in experiences of nature creates stress on world's cultural and natural heritage leading to persistent tension between the "haves" and "have-nots".
10. Brazil finally becomes the global power it always had the potential to be but never did. Vast new energy resources, unrivalled prowess in farming, prolonged political stability and (finally) social reforms and stronger rule of law creates a new force in the world equal to Japan and EU and below that of only US and China. The main driver for Brazil's rise came from Brazil's strategic economic partnership with China (also Australia) where Brazil is both a source of raw materials and a new 400m people market for China in Latin America.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Chinese Renaissance Day
[Updated on 13 oct 2009]
Congratulations for celebrating the true spirit of Double-tenth at the Memorial to Dr. Sun Yet-sen. I remember visiting Dr Sun Yat-Sen and President Chiang Kai-Shek's memorials as a teenager. They both paid homage to the most tumultous era of Chinese history, but I do feel that Dr Sun's was way more authentic, truthful, less propagandistic but also (being older) more dated and shabby.
Seizing upon our recent discussions on important aniversaries in Chinese history.
I certainly hope for the day when the whole China can celebrate the Chinese revolution (with a small "r" and "Chinese" rather than "China") a non-political celebration of Chinese progress as a nation*, a people** and and a civilization***: one born of intense love for the country, idealism, modernisation and rejunevation - but also immense sacrifice, suffering, disappointment and injustice.
One should, in fact date the Chinese revolution at least from Emperor Guang Xu's 100-day Reforms in 1898. Or even before to the many modernisation-reform movements began on commercial, education, industry and military affairs for many decades before that often from sponteneous progressive personal initiatives. The 1911 revolution itself followed many repeated but unsuccessful attempts to establish the Republic. The new political order did not survive but the revolution continued from a hundred blooms: some patriotic, some democratic, some nationalistic, some regionalistic, some militaristic but mostly opportunitistic, autocratic, egoistic and kleptocratic.
Also, one should remember that the Chinese revolution is not one taking place solely within China. Especially in the earlier days, the Chinese overseas diaspora was a bastion of progressive politics and activism. They offered funding, freedom for political and intellectual debate and safe haven for intellectuals and officials under persecution.
In China, there were countless false starts and failed attempts at a national government in the years that followed, including many led by Dr. Sun himself who died a frustrated and disapppointed man.
Dr Sun died but the Chinese revolution continued. The KMT inheriting Dr. Sun's moral prestige but more importantly established a relatively-more-capable military force gradually consolidated a national government with power over China. Although even as it unified China it created new fractures; even as China came together it was undermined in other ways; it came to embody the best but also the worst about Chinese. But through it all, the national yearning for progress and unity grew.
Through the 8 years Anti-Japanese war, the Chinese revolution rode on patriotism and nationalism as a strong unifying force. But the upheaval also catalysed the CCP victory over KMT in the mainland in 1949. As for "New China": why 1949? Why not 1959 when Tibet was taken into the fold? Or perhaps it is still an unfinished business with Taiwan..hence there is not a complete "New China" yet?
[Digressing a bit: why was the Anti-Japanese War counted from 7-7-1937? Should we in fact count from 18-9-1931 in Manchuria? or to 1919 over Japanese moves Shantung and Manchuria? or 1895 from the Sino-Japanese War which led to losing Korea and Taiwan?].
Under my definition, the Chinese revolution in fact continued - and often tragically - after 1949. There were important progress to celebrate under CCP, cheifly with the 1978/79 opening up and reform policy - because it was a leapforward in Chinese economic progress. More problematic but no less significant perhaps were the land reforms in the early years of the PRC which was a revolution on China's age old feudal class system. On hindsight, the democratisation movement in Taiwan in the 1980s-90s and continuing today deserves credit and historical adulation. After all, it was a historic leap forward in Chinese political rights. The return of Hong Kong and Macau in 1997/1999 are also important chapters to close a 150 years old chapter that began with the Opium Wars.
It has taken more than a century for the Chinese revolution to mature - from the constant need for violent rapture from its reactionary forces - into a national consensus for social and economic progress and modernisation. That is a good thing. The real capstone would be progress towards rule of law, civil and political rights and democracy in the mainland. I hope that to result from a benigned and enlightened evolution and not a revolution.
Here is what I believe. It is the mission for every Chinese to live up to the best ideals of Chinese revolution and through our actions redeem the sacrifice of the millions of often young people whose misfortune was merely to be caught up in history.
To recognize and celebrate the Chinese journey of national and cultural renaissance? To me, there one best date: May-Fourth. Day of Chinese Renaissance.
* nation = an abstract sense of belonging which can comprise of more than one state or political entity;
** people = a collective national identification regardless of ethnicity, nationality or religion;
*** civilization = an identification with Chinese historical, linguistic and cultural heritage.
Congratulations for celebrating the true spirit of Double-tenth at the Memorial to Dr. Sun Yet-sen. I remember visiting Dr Sun Yat-Sen and President Chiang Kai-Shek's memorials as a teenager. They both paid homage to the most tumultous era of Chinese history, but I do feel that Dr Sun's was way more authentic, truthful, less propagandistic but also (being older) more dated and shabby.
Seizing upon our recent discussions on important aniversaries in Chinese history.
I certainly hope for the day when the whole China can celebrate the Chinese revolution (with a small "r" and "Chinese" rather than "China") a non-political celebration of Chinese progress as a nation*, a people** and and a civilization***: one born of intense love for the country, idealism, modernisation and rejunevation - but also immense sacrifice, suffering, disappointment and injustice.
One should, in fact date the Chinese revolution at least from Emperor Guang Xu's 100-day Reforms in 1898. Or even before to the many modernisation-reform movements began on commercial, education, industry and military affairs for many decades before that often from sponteneous progressive personal initiatives. The 1911 revolution itself followed many repeated but unsuccessful attempts to establish the Republic. The new political order did not survive but the revolution continued from a hundred blooms: some patriotic, some democratic, some nationalistic, some regionalistic, some militaristic but mostly opportunitistic, autocratic, egoistic and kleptocratic.
Also, one should remember that the Chinese revolution is not one taking place solely within China. Especially in the earlier days, the Chinese overseas diaspora was a bastion of progressive politics and activism. They offered funding, freedom for political and intellectual debate and safe haven for intellectuals and officials under persecution.
In China, there were countless false starts and failed attempts at a national government in the years that followed, including many led by Dr. Sun himself who died a frustrated and disapppointed man.
Dr Sun died but the Chinese revolution continued. The KMT inheriting Dr. Sun's moral prestige but more importantly established a relatively-more-capable military force gradually consolidated a national government with power over China. Although even as it unified China it created new fractures; even as China came together it was undermined in other ways; it came to embody the best but also the worst about Chinese. But through it all, the national yearning for progress and unity grew.
Through the 8 years Anti-Japanese war, the Chinese revolution rode on patriotism and nationalism as a strong unifying force. But the upheaval also catalysed the CCP victory over KMT in the mainland in 1949. As for "New China": why 1949? Why not 1959 when Tibet was taken into the fold? Or perhaps it is still an unfinished business with Taiwan..hence there is not a complete "New China" yet?
[Digressing a bit: why was the Anti-Japanese War counted from 7-7-1937? Should we in fact count from 18-9-1931 in Manchuria? or to 1919 over Japanese moves Shantung and Manchuria? or 1895 from the Sino-Japanese War which led to losing Korea and Taiwan?].
Under my definition, the Chinese revolution in fact continued - and often tragically - after 1949. There were important progress to celebrate under CCP, cheifly with the 1978/79 opening up and reform policy - because it was a leapforward in Chinese economic progress. More problematic but no less significant perhaps were the land reforms in the early years of the PRC which was a revolution on China's age old feudal class system. On hindsight, the democratisation movement in Taiwan in the 1980s-90s and continuing today deserves credit and historical adulation. After all, it was a historic leap forward in Chinese political rights. The return of Hong Kong and Macau in 1997/1999 are also important chapters to close a 150 years old chapter that began with the Opium Wars.
It has taken more than a century for the Chinese revolution to mature - from the constant need for violent rapture from its reactionary forces - into a national consensus for social and economic progress and modernisation. That is a good thing. The real capstone would be progress towards rule of law, civil and political rights and democracy in the mainland. I hope that to result from a benigned and enlightened evolution and not a revolution.
Here is what I believe. It is the mission for every Chinese to live up to the best ideals of Chinese revolution and through our actions redeem the sacrifice of the millions of often young people whose misfortune was merely to be caught up in history.
To recognize and celebrate the Chinese journey of national and cultural renaissance? To me, there one best date: May-Fourth. Day of Chinese Renaissance.
* nation = an abstract sense of belonging which can comprise of more than one state or political entity;
** people = a collective national identification regardless of ethnicity, nationality or religion;
*** civilization = an identification with Chinese historical, linguistic and cultural heritage.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
98th Double 10 Anniversary
Taipei has decided to cancel the anniversary celebration after the recent disastrous typhoon that killed couple of hundred peoples.
Unlike 9 days ago where my family and I were watching the National Parade and fireworks before the TV screen, I decided to take them out to visit Sun Yat Sen Muzium.
The history of Republican China matters more than the New China. From a subject of the Qing Dysnaty to a citizen of the Republic, never mind that it was more conceptual than real, the fact of the matter was the Chinese stepped into an era that demarcated itself from the imperial era.
Little is remembered that the Republican China at the inception was not run by the KMT and the flag hoisted in 1911 was different than what we know today.
Prior to 1949, before the era New China, there were epic historical event like the reawakening of May fourth movement and the heroic 8 years resistance against the Japanese agression and occupation.
Let's salute and pay respect to the many Chinese who gave their life for the Republic, whatever ideology that they may have, and many of them were simply young men and women who just wanted to have a nation free of domination, any form of domination both foreign and domestic, a country of peace, freedom, democracy and development, a Republic everyone owns and no one dominates.
Unlike 9 days ago where my family and I were watching the National Parade and fireworks before the TV screen, I decided to take them out to visit Sun Yat Sen Muzium.
The history of Republican China matters more than the New China. From a subject of the Qing Dysnaty to a citizen of the Republic, never mind that it was more conceptual than real, the fact of the matter was the Chinese stepped into an era that demarcated itself from the imperial era.
Little is remembered that the Republican China at the inception was not run by the KMT and the flag hoisted in 1911 was different than what we know today.
Prior to 1949, before the era New China, there were epic historical event like the reawakening of May fourth movement and the heroic 8 years resistance against the Japanese agression and occupation.
Let's salute and pay respect to the many Chinese who gave their life for the Republic, whatever ideology that they may have, and many of them were simply young men and women who just wanted to have a nation free of domination, any form of domination both foreign and domestic, a country of peace, freedom, democracy and development, a Republic everyone owns and no one dominates.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Kokang Incident
I had wanted to write something on this back in August. But most of which are out of the limelight now and I decided to give it a pass.
Suffice to say, with some googling, one can get to know about this tiny sino-burmese community and her history. The Chinese community particularly those in the mainland was very vocal when the Burmese junta went to eject the ruling force then and replaced it with its proxy.
What is of interest to me is how this once autonomous Burmese region is replicating everything China including the military parade.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJA6JUVw6mM
Impressed? Puzzled?
Suffice to say, with some googling, one can get to know about this tiny sino-burmese community and her history. The Chinese community particularly those in the mainland was very vocal when the Burmese junta went to eject the ruling force then and replaced it with its proxy.
What is of interest to me is how this once autonomous Burmese region is replicating everything China including the military parade.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJA6JUVw6mM
Impressed? Puzzled?
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