Confucian endorses Barack Obama

It is so heartening to read that Barack Obama decided to visit his sicked grandmother in Hawaii at such a crucial stage of the campaign trail with the election day is barely two weeks away.

Barack has been talking about family value in his books and in his campaign trail. No one will dispute his message on family value, on tough love, that echo everywhere and relevant to everyone.

Barack walks his talk with the visit to his grandmother.

If elected the President (highly likely judging on the latest tally on poll, money and endorsement he garnered), he will be the best living exemplary for Americans to strengthen and rebuild itself from the very basic societal units - self and family.

The truth remains that no society, wherever it is, will do well if a society is filled with broken family, neglected elderly, abandoned child and selfish individual.Family is where the core of love begins and where the seed of education starts.

I like to imagine if Confucian is alive, will Barack receive his endorsement?

The tenet of Confucianism for political leadership is based on two components - ethics (德) and competence (才).

Confucian thus speak of 修身齐家, roughly the ethical component in the sense of individual's ethical conduct and familial responsiblity, and 治国平天下, roughly the competence component in the sense of competency for governance to deliver peace throughout the world.

On this tenet, there are adequate evidence of Barack fulfilling the criteria to be trusted with the American Presidential and the world leadership's responsibility.

He has ably run arguably the best Presidential campaign in history, in mobilising the largest number of volunteers and in raising the highest amount of political donation.

He has also articulated his policies much better than his opponent, with reasoned argument and compelling vision, on domestic issues from health care to education, on economic policies from alternative energy to rebuilding economy, on foreign policies from reforming the United Nation to Iraq and Afganistan.

I am confident and convinced that Confucian will give Barack the endorsement.Lastly, let's us all wish Madam Dunham well and her grandson sucessful securing the White House.

Happy Birthday Bro!

I wish you happy birthday and may you appreciate many moments of joy, love, enlightenment, well-being, courage, abundance, peace and progress each and every day in the year ahead!

HUI

The Agony of Beijing Taxi Drivers

The Beijing subway system with eight lines, 123 stations and a total of 200km coverage is quite an extensive subway system anywhere in the world major cities.

What is most impressive is that the fare is just at RMB 2 from one point to the other within the subway network (with the exception of the airport express line that charge only RMB 25). The service is affordable and mostly comfortable with the exception of the two older lines where the trains are slow and the stations are old.

I have traveled just a few occasions but I am pretty satisfied with the expanded subway service. It maybe crowded during the peak hours but the service is reliable and generally comfortable with the newer lines. Sometimes it is more convenient and time saving traveling on the subway than traveling on taxies which are again back to halting speed during the Beijing peak hours.

Having said that, I typically find myself traveling in the comfort of taxi which allows me to learn a bit of gossip and sometimes to educate the taxi drivers with my uncensored information.

I always enjoy to enlighten the taxi drivers who are nostalgic of Mao.

To mainland Chinese, it is the three years of natural calamities as opposed to the Mao's policy of the Great Leap Forward.

The massive starvation is officially attributed to climate and sometimes the withdrawal of Soviet's support. This is when I jumped in to bash Mao and assert my supposedly more objective information.

Having shared my insight, their perspective is not lost however.

It may not be scientific but many Chinese (from the taxi drivers I surveyed) are yearning for the equality of yesteryear.

The disparity of wealth has led many Chinese to be nostalgic of Mao's era even if everything then were scarce, the few things that existed were more secured. Everything now though seems to be more abundant, nothing is assured.

This is contradictory and this is the irony.

The reality (or the perception) was that during the Mao's years, the jobs were secured never mind that they didn't exist or the income was meager. The housing were allocated, the health care service and the education were provided never mind that they were rudimentary.

Under the current Chinese capitalism, the jobs, though more abundant by statistic, are less secured. The vast majority are concerned if they could keep their jobs, afford the housing, the healthcare, the education and living as a going concern.

There are greater sense of insecurity now than ever.

It is not that they are unwilling to work. Their fear is that even if they work, they might not be able to keep the job; they might not make enough money for treatment when they or their family are sick; they might not be able to afford the children's school fees.

All these happens despite the fact that they recognize they have enjoyed greater creature comforts from refrigerator to mobile phone.

Added to this sense of insecurity is that the current system appears to be unfair and exploitative of their labor.

A common complaint I heard is that the taxi drivers, on top of having to pay the police fine for violating the traffic offences, are contractually imposed a penalty to pay a further fine doubling the amount of the original fine, to the taxi company that they work for. Supposedly, the penalty is imposed to ensure better compliance with traffic regulation but the police fine itself is already punitive. Naturally, this is viewed as exploitative.

I see this as a double jeopardy and what make me uncomfortable is that this is one
among the many more grieving complaints I have heard.

Will the drivers sue against the unfair contract? All of them said they would not. The reason is that there are many more peoples lining up to take their jobs.

Such is the agony of Beijing taxi drivers and, by extension, their fellow Chinese.

Being Children - Filial Piety

My filial sentiment grows stronger especially after I become a father myself.

This is not suggesting that we are not filial or we cannot be filial without being parent ourselves.

Rather, it is much easier to identify with our parents after we live through our own parenthood experience.

********************************************************************************

Last week, my younger child was admitted to the hospital for three days and my wife stayed with him throughout that three days.

I know she was tired because she didn't sleep well that three nights.

She could have chosen to ask the domestic helper to step in. She didn't. It is her motherhood obligation. She couldn't delegate to anyone else, husband included.

I know she was worried because the virus strain my boy caught led to two casualties earlier.

She could have dismissed the chance of such possibility because the virus strain are well known and well contained if detected earlier. She couldn't. Every risk however slim is a risk to her son.

I know she was at pain as she was still nursing her wrist.

She didn't complain. The sick boy needed the motherly comfort. She lifted him up and hugged him despite the pain.

*******************************************************************************

I record this not because she is my wife or she is the mother of my children.

It is because she is a mother.

That she is our mothers.

******************************************************************************
Did you ever ask your parents how you were nursed and taken care of when you were sick as a baby or a young child?

You could have been told that you had fever for weeks; you had cough for month; you didn't sleep at nights; you cried non-stop; you might even have been admited to hospital (a very big deal in the past).

Reading in between the lines, you ought to learn the love and sacrifice they rendered to us unconditionally.

********************************************************************************
October 7 was 重阳, the double nineth festival, a day we visit the graves of our ancestors to pay our respects (not a popular practice in SEA) and also a day for us to care for and appreciate the elderly (in Taiwan especially).

This year, I lost my paternal grandmother and maternal grandfather. They were ordinary persons and definitely had their own shortcoming. Yet as grandparents, they were superb to the grandchildren, especially me, the eldest.

It is fitting to recall 祭之丰不如养之薄, better to care for our loved one with however little means we have than offering abundant sacrifice after they passed away.

I cited this quote in my primary five's essay and I hope I walk the talk as well.

Blacker October - Why?

If September is black, October now looks definitely blacker.

Following the Dow Jones plunging to 8,579 on Oct 9, the Hang Seng Index sunk to 14,796 on Oct 10, representing 39.4% and 53.7% drop from their respective historical height last October. Stock markets almost everywhere saw severe beating.

This is notwithstanding the US's USD 850 billion bail-out and several major countries coming to the rescue by hefty interest rate cut, state guarantee to bank deposits and other measures. It is obvious from the stock market performance, from Jakarta to Moscow, that the investors confidence continues to sink to new low.

To many including Francis Fukuyama, this is but evident of "the Fall of American Inc". http://www.newsweek.com/id/162401/page/1.

The current credit crisis, stemmed from financial deregulation, a key aspect of Reaganism for economic growth is now being blamed by the Main Street. Fukuyama calls it - what was once fresh ideas have hardened into hoary dogma.

Most agrees that it is obscene and inequitable that the Wall Street drew out the fat cheque during the good time and the players largely escape any responsibility (recall Lehman Brothers CEO Dick Fuld who claims "it wasn't my fault") when the time is bad. The bail-out bill now lies squarely with every helpless tax payers who mostly make disproportionate gain, if any, during the good time. No wonder, Communism has fans up to this day!

Unrestraint capitalism or indeed unfettered freedom or uncontrolled democracy are all open to exploitation. Everything has an aspect of a yin and a yang. Making the right decision in a particular condition at a particular time is both the art and the science we human race got to constant make. This time is no different.

Let's persevere in this financial meltdown! After all, what goes down will come up. Did I not say yin and yang?

Credit Crisis - 1 Oct 2008

This is a historical moment for the global economy. It is anyone's guess how long this story will run and what the ending will be.

But here are some foods for thought.

Firstly, in a time like this, I cannot think of a more independently credible, knowedgable and clearer-minded guide than Warren Buffet. This is a great interview to watch, learn from and share with others who seek to understand what is going on.

http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/10/01/1/an-exclusive-conversation-with-warren-buffett

The NYTimes article below - also from October 1, 2008 - is a very good summary of what the US economy is facing.

But first, this is another article which deserves reading because it tells what the financial system, policy makers and players experienced on the days of 17 - 18 September 2008. It makes a riveting read. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/business/02crisis.html?hp

Apart from anything else, moral of the story is that it pays to have good people at the central banks. And at this time, thank goodness for Ben Benanke and Henry Paulson.

But first, this is what I learnt from the past day or so. The crux of the crisis is not the stock market but the credit market. Banks simply do not want to lend because they do not know if they will get their money back. Banks and financial institutions are pulling their credit lines from other banks creating a knock on effect.

In the past 2 weeks business and consumer credit is drying up. Qualified borrowers find their loan offers rescinded, and even then home mortgage applications for the last 2 weeks of September fell 16% from already low levels previously. Consumer credit (car loans, appliance loans, credit cards) are hard to get approved even for prime customers so people simply cannot buy even if they want to. The credit crunch is felt in car sales for September which fell 16%, 35%, 35% for GM, Toyota and Ford respectively.

More critically, businesses find their limits on overdrafts and trade credits reduced or cut. This is the time of the year when retailers stock up for the Christmas season but banks are not extending trade credits expect for the largest stores. The effects on especially the smaller businesses will be dire because without credit they cannot take delivary of inventory. For many, the only way out is to pay out of cash flow meaning they need to cut on expenses, which for most means staff retrechments.

Major retailers are reportedly cutting year end orders by 30%. Expect to see cancellations of orders to cascade and hit factories and manufacturers in China and elsewhere because the supply chain is 6-8 months long. They simply cannot unwind the orders and with their margins being so low many manufacturers will go under. Arguable, the credit crisis may eventually cause more unemployment and hardship in China than even in the US.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NYTimes October 1, 2008
Economic Scene
Lesson From a Crisis: When Trust Vanishes, Worry

By DAVID LEONHARDT
In 1929, Meyer Mishkin owned a shop in New York that sold silk shirts to workingmen. When the stock market crashed that October, he turned to his son, then a student at City College, and offered a version of this sentiment: It serves those rich scoundrels right.

A year later, as Wall Street’s problems were starting to spill into the broader economy, Mr. Mishkin’s store went out of business. He no longer had enough customers. His son had to go to work to support the family, and Mr. Mishkin never held a steady job again.

Frederic Mishkin — Meyer’s grandson and, until he stepped down a month ago, an ally of Ben Bernanke’s on the Federal Reserve Board — told me this story the other day, and its moral is obvious enough. Many people in Washington fear that the country is starting to spiral into a terrible downturn. And to their horror, they see the public, and many members of Congress, turning into modern-day Meyer Mishkins, more interested in punishing Wall Street than saving the economy.

All of which may be true. But there is good reason for the public’s skepticism. The experts and policy makers who so desperately want to take action have failed to tell a compelling story about why they’re so afraid.

It’s not enough to say that markets could freeze up, loans could become impossible to get and the economy could slide into its worst downturn since the Great Depression. For now, the crisis has had little effect on most Americans, beyond their 401(k) statements. So to them, the specter of a depression can sound alarmist, and the $700 billion bill that Congress voted down this week can seem like a bailout for rich scoundrels.

Mr. Bernanke and his fellow worriers need to connect the dots. They need to use their bully pulpits to teach a little lesson on the economics of a credit crisis — how A can lead to B, B to C and C to Depression.

Let’s give it a shot, then.

Why are we talking about the Depression, anyway?
Almost no economist thinks that even a terrible downturn would look like the Depression. The government has already responded more aggressively than it did in Herbert Hoover’s day. So a Depression-like contraction — a 30 percent drop in economic activity — is highly unlikely. The country is also far richer today, which means that a much smaller portion of the population is living on the edge of despair. No matter what happens, you’re not likely to see shantytowns.
But the Depression is still relevant, because the basic mechanics of how the economy might fall into a severe recession look quite similar to those that caused the Depression. In both cases, a credit crisis is at the center of the story.

At the start of the 1930s, despite everything that had happened on Wall Street, the American economy had not yet collapsed. Consumer spending and business investment were down, but not horribly so.

In late 1930, however, a rolling series of bank panics began. Investments made by the banks were going bad — or, in some cases, were rumored to be going bad — and nervous customers besieged bank branches to demand their money back. Hundreds of banks eventually closed.
Once a bank in a given town shut its doors, all the knowledge accumulated by the bank officers there effectively disappeared. Other banks weren’t nearly as willing to lend money to local businesses and residents because the loan officers at those banks didn’t know which borrowers were less reliable than they looked. Credit dried up.

“If a guy has a good investment opportunity and he can’t get the funding, he won’t do it,” Mr. Mishkin, who’s now an economics professor at Columbia, notes. “And that’s when the economy collapses.” Or, as Adam Posen, another economist, puts it, “That’s when the Depression became the Great Depression.” By 1932, consumption and investment had both collapsed, and stocks had fallen more than 80 percent from their peak.

As a young academic economist in the 1980s, Mr. Bernanke largely developed the theory that the loan officers’ lost knowledge was a crucial cause of the Depression. He referred to this lost knowledge as “informational capital.” In plain English, it means that trust vanished from the banking sector.

The same thing is happening now. Financial markets are global, not local, today, so the problem isn’t that the failure of any single bank locks individuals or businesses out of the credit markets. Instead, the nasty surprises of the last 13 months — the sort of turmoil that once would have been unthinkable — have caused an effective breakdown in informational capital. Bankers now look at longtime customers and think of that old refrain from a failed marriage: I feel like I don’t even know you.

Bear Stearns, for example, was supposed to have solid, tangible collateral standing behind some of its debts, so that certain lenders would be paid off no matter what. It didn’t, and they weren’t.
The current, more serious stage of the crisis began two weeks ago today, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the Fed’s takeover of the American International Group. Those events created a new level of fear. Banks cut back on making loans and instead poured money into Treasury bills, which paid almost no interest but also came with almost no risk. On the loans they did make, banks demanded higher interest rates. Over the past two weeks, rates have generally continued to rise — and these rates, not the stock market, are really what you should be watching.

The current fears can certainly seem irrational. Most households and businesses are still in fine shape, after all. So why aren’t some banks stepping into the void and taking advantage of the newly high interest rates to earn some profit?

There are two chief reasons. One is fairly basic: bankers are nervous that borrowers who look solid today may not turn out to be so solid. Think back to 1930, when the American economy seemed to be weathering the storm.

The second reason is a bit more complex. Banks own a lot of long-term assets (like your mortgage) and hold a lot of short-term debt (which is cheaper than long-term debt). To pay off this debt, they need to take out short-term loans.

In the current environment, bankers are nervous that other banks might shut them out, out of fear, and stop extending that short-term credit. This, in a nutshell, brought about Monday’s collapse of Wachovia and Glitnir Bank in Iceland. To avoid their fate, other banks are hoarding capital, instead of making seemingly profitable loans. And when capital is hoarded, further bank failures become all the more likely.

The crucial point is that a modern economy can’t function when people can’t easily get credit. It takes a while for this to become obvious, since most companies and households don’t take out big new loans every day. But it will eventually become obvious, and painfully so. Already, a lack of car loans has caused vehicle sales to fall further.

Could the current crisis lift — could banks decide they really are missing out on profitable investing opportunities — without a $700 billion government fund to relieve Wall Street of its scariest holdings? Sure. And is Congress right to fight for a workable program that’s as inexpensive and as tough on Wall Street as possible? Absolutely.

But in the end, this really isn’t about Wall Street. It’s about reducing the risk that something really bad happens. It’s about limiting the damage from the past decade’s financial excesses. Unfortunately, there is no way to accomplish that without also extending a helping hand to Wall Street. That is where our credit markets are, and we need them to start working again.
“We are facing a major national crisis,” as Meyer Mishkin’s grandson says. “To do nothing right now is to do what was done during the Great Depression.”

A Perspective of America

One of the beauty of this co-blogging business is that KY and I both live as outsiders in the most cutting edge and outward-looking metropolis on the edge of our respective continental-size countries. In observing the preoccupations of the day in our nooks, I think we can better illustrate the present realitiesof the two most powerful nations in the world.


Over one late September weekend, our family holidayed at Lake George. Lake George is a rather large lake in upstate New York, most of which is ringed by the southern reaches of the Adirondack Mountains. It reminds me of the Lake District in Lancashire although both the lakes and the mountains are somewhat larger. Around the lake are dotted with small towns, motels, resorts and hundreds of beautiful vacation homes of the American elite.


The more I observe America, the more I can understand those Amercians who believe unquestioningly in the American exceptionalism. This is a land of unimaginable plenty in the material sense, but it is also a place where common decency and civilized behavior still prevail. It is very easy for Americans to forget about the troubles of the world simply because life is kind and they have it so good.


The drive from New York to Lake George took 4 hours. We drove through endless miles of green wooded hills and pristine streams, punctuated by a small town here and there. From the open highway, one sees nature and nothing else for hours on end. There is so much space about, unoccupied, uncultivated left to the golden sunshine and to nature. The weather was such that those hills were beginning to be dotted haphazardly with dashed of the colours of autumn: red, orange, gold and amber.

When we got there, the fresh water in the lake is crystal clear. It is hard to image waves lapping about without the smell of the sea - in fact, no smell at all - but thats Lake George. And as I found kayaking up and down the coast, not a spot of garbage washed up on the shore or debris floating about, not even streaks of oil even though power boats were cruising about. Space, woods, fresh air, clean water and pleasant weather: Americans are right to think of themselves as blessed.


Out there in the rural communities, the infrastructure was clean, well-maintained and tended with pride by the local community. The people are unfailingly good-natured, law abiding and polite. In the small towns, the civic and community infrastructure very much in evident: the local library, the village notice board, the volunteer fire service, the local police (sitting by himself with a newspaper in the cafe), the flags that bedecks the homes and on the streets, the banners and decorations for halloween, the signs of the local Rotary and Lions Club and the multitude of local churches. It is like a modern day reincarnation of a Norman Rockwell print. I had the sensed that, here people still uncynically live the healthy and wholesome life. I notice that from the way parents behave with their the small children - so relaxed and so much trust in other people - this seems to be a place where one can grow up believing that the world is safe, that the living will be comfortable and life will always turn out for the better.

Life is easy too. Too easy and clogged up with stuff, stuff and more stuff. As i paddled pass the summer homes, it is easy to see 5000 sq ft homes with 4 car garages and a dock complete with a boatshed for 2 boats, 2 jet skis and numerous kayaks. In the front patios, are hot tubs and all kinds of toys. You go into the local supermarket and it is clogged with consumer excess - everything that can be made, sold and then disposed off.

Closer to home, some weeks ago, a friend of Marisa (our Philipino helper) launched a collection within her neighbourhood in Park Slope, Brooklyn for second hand clothing in aid of victims of the recent hurricane in Haiti. All it took was passing the word among fellow parents of her son's soccer team, and within days they had a whole living room 2 feet deep full of clothing. Many of them are branded and brand new. They had so much stuff that they decided to send some off for typhoon victims in the Philiipines as well. Marisa also picked up some clothes for the girls - raincoats, winter stuff, brand new shoes, jeans etc. - we ended up not having to buy any more new clothes for them for the year! This is no means a one-off. In fact, occasionally there are gathering around town where people simply leave their excess clothing - often perfectly good stuff - for others to just pick up for free. We are astounded by the world of abundance that we live in; but also bemoan the excess of it all.

I was beginning to understand why Americans are not interested in the rest of the world - its simply the sense that for all the world's troubles none of that concern them because they just seem so abstract so far away. I can also understand why for so many Americans, who never seen another modern country apart from their own, would assume that America is No.1 at everything and somehow that everyone, if given a chance, wants to be like them.

The trouble is the world is not all like that or it would simply be a good thing if all can be like that. If the whole world try to live like Americans by aping the lifestyle, the world would collapse simply because it is so wasteful that it should be seen as an abberation in human history. It would be equally mistaken for America to export their template as it isfor others to replicate their template. Make no mistake, everyone can live as well but everyone must find their own best ways to do so. Tempting as it is to copy, simply not many places in the world has the "basic conditions" to do as they do - no one has the wide spaces and resources nor at the moment: the institutions, education level and human-societal development to replicate such a lifestyle.

But what we can do is to learn from that American sense of optimism and courage to assume that things can always be better and to assume personal responsibility for making that difference in the world. Since the first time I visited America in 1992, I have always been a fan of the prevailing decency, open attitude to others and the fact that people take personal responsbility to make a positive difference to their community, that one finds in America. I am pleased to see that pretty much intact even in the metropolis of New York; where my days are often brightened by such encounters.

To celebrate those moments, I intend to begin a series of postings of "Moments from my Metropolis"soon.